The growth rate of the Polish economy throughout 2015 remained stable at close to 3.5% y/y despite the varying trends in the external environment. The deep recession in Russia and Ukraine, together with the slowdown / recession in many emerging countries (mainly in China) limited the strength of external demand, but the positive impact of the recovery in the euro zone was dominating. The positive impulse –significant drop in oil prices came from the external environment. As a result, domestic demand remained on the path of recovery. Consumption growth remained stable at just over 3% with the continued improvement in the labour market and deflation increasing the real purchasing power of households. Strong investment demand at the beginning of the year was supported by favourable weather, while in the second half of the year to maintain 10% growth of companies investments, the growth was supported by expansion/modernization of production potential in the automotive industry and the energy. On the other hand, decrease in government investment in the second half of the year was due to the end of the 2007-2013 financial perspective. In the whole 2015, the growth of GDP amounted to 3.6%.
In 2015 recorded growth acceleration in the corporate sector amounted up to 1.3% from 0,6% in 2014, with a clear lowering of the unemployment rate to 9.8% at the end of 2015 from 10.4% at the end of 2014. Remuneration growth in the corporate sector slowed slightly in 2015 to 3.5% from 3.7% in 2014.
Growth of GDP and its constituents (%, y/y)
Unemployment and jobs (end of timeframe, %)
In 2015, the average annual CPI inflation rate dropped to -0,9% from 0,0% y/y in 2014. The downward trend continued until March 2015 when inflation reached -1.5% y/y. This is mainly due to the deepening decline in the raw material prices, in particular food and oil. The subsequent rebound of fuel was only a statistical effect (oil prices fell, however a low base effect took place). The scale of food prices decline decreased almost throughout the whole year, which was due to a slowdown in the global downward trend and an extremely dry summer. The rate of core inflation fell during the year from 0.6% in January to 0.2% in December, mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of prices in term of communication, entertainment and education. Deflation tendencies during 2015 did not have a negative impact on the Polish economy, due to the low level of public debt and the private sector.
MPC decided to reduce all of NBP interest rates by 50bp in March (reference 1.50%), which was influenced by the decline of inflation to the lowest level in the recent history of the Polish economy. Later that year MPC decided not to cut the rates, decision was supported by the: progressive shortness of deflation, maintaining the GDP growth above 3% y/y and the Polish zloty depreciation.